Government – Economics, Finance and Common Sense

Recession? Not So Fast. The Data Say Otherwise

Ever since President Donald Trump’s landslide re-election in November 2024, the media-industrial complex and its political allies have been screaming one word louder than ever: recession. Cable news pundits, legacy newspapers, and a veritable army of social media doom-posters are ringing the alarm bells. “The Trump economy is on the brink,” they tell us. “Brace for impact.”

But here at Optimum Broadband, we believe in logic, not hysteria. Facts, not feelings. And the facts? They tell a very different story.

The Kudlow Rule: Growth Is Growth

Let’s start with the basics. As of Q1 2025, U.S. GDP is growing at an annualized rate of 2 to 2.5%, according to preliminary numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s not booming—but it’s steady, sustainable growth.

Unemployment sits at 4.1%—a hair above last year, but still near multi-decade lows. Consumer spending remains strong, particularly in services, retail, and travel. And core inflation? Tamed, hovering around 3%.

The Federal Reserve, wisely holding rates steady at 4.5–4.75%, seems to agree: the economy is on solid footing.

That’s not a recession. That’s a durable, dynamic economy adjusting to global turbulence—and emerging stronger.

Manufactured Panic: TDS in the Markets

So why the panic? Why are networks like CNN and The New York Times flooding the zone with stories about “economic peril”? Why are progressive influencers lighting up X (formerly Twitter) with end-is-nigh memes?

Because they’re suffering from an old affliction: Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)—the irrational need to paint any success under Trump as failure.

It’s the same playbook they used during his first term. When Trump cut taxes, they predicted deficits would destroy us. When he deregulated energy, they screamed climate Armageddon. When he renegotiated trade deals, they cried “trade war.” And when wages rose, unemployment fell, and the stock market hit record highs—they called it a fluke.

Now, in 2025, they’re back at it—ignoring the fundamentals in favor of a narrative.

There Are Risks—But They’re Manageable

To be fair, this isn’t a perfect economy. There are risks. Business investment has pulled back slightly, especially in manufacturing and logistics, as companies digest Trump’s updated tariff policies on China.

Housing starts have cooled, thanks to high mortgage rates. And some stress remains in the regional banking sector—echoes of 2023’s Silicon Valley Bank mess—but federal regulators are watching it closely and responding with targeted reforms, not sweeping overreach.

And yes, the S&P 500 is down about 5% from its January peak. But even that’s a correction, not a collapse. Stocks rise and fall—it’s the long-term trend that matters. And long-term, America under pro-growth leadership remains the best investment on the planet.

A Tale of Two Narratives

One of the more underreported stories of the last decade is the degree to which partisan perception drives economic sentiment. A landmark 2024 study by the American Political Science Association confirmed what many of us suspected: Democrats routinely rate the economy worse under Republican presidents—even when the actual data is strong.

So when the media blares “Recession!” 24/7, it’s less about the economy and more about the narrative. It’s emotional politics masquerading as economics.

At Optimum Broadband, we’re not interested in spin. We look at industrial production, consumer confidence, the yield curve, energy output, and labor participation. Those are the vital signs of a real economy. And they aren’t flashing red—they’re mostly green.

Trump’s Tariffs: Strategic, Targeted, and Pro-Growth

Let’s take a moment to clear the air about Trump’s latest round of tariffs. The usual suspects in the media and academia are once again crying “trade war” and predicting economic ruin. But here’s the truth: Trump’s tariffs aren’t about isolationism—they’re about leverage.

The president’s new “America First 2.0” trade strategy is a continuation of what he started in his first term: holding foreign competitors accountable, particularly China, for decades of cheating, IP theft, currency manipulation, and mercantilist abuse.

These tariffs are not blanket taxes on all imports—they’re surgical tools aimed at strategic sectors: semiconductors, EV batteries, solar panels, and critical rare-earth minerals where the U.S. must secure its supply chains. This is economic security, not protectionism.

Critics say tariffs raise prices. That’s textbook theory, not real-world economics. What they miss is that tariffs can shift global supply chains in our favor, bring manufacturing jobs back home, and reduce dependence on hostile nations. We’re already seeing companies diversify production away from China and invest in the U.S., Mexico, and trusted allies. That’s a win.

Even the Congressional Budget Office, hardly a cheerleader for the Trump agenda, admits the tariffs could result in a net GDP boost if implemented alongside tax and regulatory reforms. That’s exactly what’s happening now.

In classic economics : incentives matter. Tariffs, when paired with the right domestic policy mix, incentivize American production, innovation, and job creation. They send a signal to the world: if you want access to the U.S. market, play by our rules.

That’s not anti-trade. That’s pro-fair trade—and it’s long overdue.

America’s Economic Engine Is Still Running

Trump’s economic blueprint—lower taxes, fewer regulations, energy independence, and fair trade—is once again creating the conditions for growth.

Yes, there’s uncertainty in global markets. Yes, China remains a threat. But under strong leadership, America is doing what it always does: adapting, innovating, producing.

In the words of Larry Kudlow, “Free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity.” And in 2025, that path is still open—despite the noise from the peanut gallery.

Final Thought: Turn Down the Volume, Tune into the Data

If you’re feeling anxious about the economy, we get it. The headlines are loud. The social feeds are louder. But here’s our advice:

Don’t follow the fear. Follow the fundamentals.

There’s no recession today. And with the right policies in place—ones that unleash growth rather than stifle it—there won’t be one tomorrow either.

Keep your eye on the numbers. Ignore the clickbait. And remember: the American economy doesn’t run on panic—it runs on productivity.

From Bureaucratic Quagmire to Trump 2.0: Slaying the Leviathan in Medicaid and Broadband

The federal government’s track record with grand initiatives offers a tale of two extremes—Medicaid’s swift and efficient rollout in the 1960s versus the bureaucratic gridlock of today’s rural broadband program. Medicaid transformed from legislation to reality in under five years. By contrast, the Build Back Better broadband push—three years old as of March 2025—is still stuck in a labyrinth of 14 cumbersome steps. The Biden-era leviathan is bloated and sluggish. But with Trump 2.0 on the horizon and a bold reform tool—DOGE, the Department of Government Efficiency—we have a blueprint to cut through red tape, revitalize Medicaid, and finally deliver rural broadband.

Back in 1965, under President Lyndon Johnson, Medicaid launched with remarkable speed. By January 1, 1966, states were enrolling, and by 1970, all but Arizona had live programs. This was pre-digital—no computers, just paper, fax machines, and grit. Most states implemented Medicaid in two to three years. In stark contrast, Build Back Better’s broadband initiative, launched in 2021, has produced little more than frustration. Just three of 56 jurisdictions have made it through the entire 14-step approval process. Planning grants, five-year strategies, and endless disputes over FCC maps have paralyzed progress. Medicaid trusted states to deliver. Broadband smothers them with oversight.

The results speak volumes: as of March 2025, despite more than three years of federal engagement, virtually no broadband infrastructure has been built through this program. The application process is so convoluted and opaque that many potential applicants—both states and private sector providers—have simply walked away. Faced with a mountain of paperwork, multiple map challenges, and years-long timelines, they’ve decided it’s not worth the time, cost, or uncertainty. The process has defeated the very people it was meant to help.

Even progressive commentators like Jon Stewart and Ezra Klein are exasperated. On a recent podcast, Klein read through the broadband process step-by-step, and the scene quickly descended into a comedic display of disbelief. Klein began with Step 1—the issuance of a funding opportunity notice—and proceeded through an exhausting maze: letters of intent, $5 million planning grant requests, NTIA reviews and approvals, five-year action plans, FCC maps, state-level challenges to those maps, multiple rounds of proposals, subgranting, and final approvals. Stewart, increasingly aghast, interrupted: “But then what was the five-year plan and what the [expletive] did they apply for?” By Step 12, he exploded— “Oh, my [expletive] God. At step 12. After all this has been done!?”—before falling into stunned silence. Their exchange underscored a rare bipartisan truth: the current process is so tangled, so dysfunctional, even the most ideologically sympathetic observers can’t defend it.

How did we get here? We’ve spent decades building up the Leviathan state complex, unaccountable web of federal agencies, regulations, and review panels that now chokes everything it touches. What once may have been intended as oversight has metastasized into paralysis. Each new mandate or program layer adds more friction, fewer results. The bureaucratic state no longer serves the citizen—it serves itself. Programs stall not for lack of funding or will, but because the system is structurally designed to delay, defer, and deflect.

The problem isn’t limited to broadband. The CHIPS Act, intended to rebuild America’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity, is already buckling under the weight of its own liberal wish list. Instead of fast-tracking critical chip production, it’s bogged down by mandates on childcare provisions, climate compliance reporting, diversity benchmarks, and labor guarantees. These add-ons, though politically fashionable, have all but guaranteed the Act’s failure to deliver on its core mission. While foreign competitors move swiftly and decisively, America’s own industrial policy is stalled by its obsession with ideological box-checking.

Enter Trump 2.0—armed with lessons from his first term and ready to wield DOGE. In round one, Trump streamlined Medicaid by waiving work requirements, accelerating reimbursements, and piloting block grants—all while maintaining coverage for over 70 million Americans. With DOGE in hand, a second Trump term could go further: AI-driven eligibility systems that cut approval times from weeks to days, blockchain-backed fraud detection that saves billions, and a new ethos of state-level flexibility. DOGE would be a scalpel to cut federal bloat and bring Medicaid into the 21st century.

Broadband, too, is ripe for disruption. Trump 2.0 could scrap the 14-step farce that Stewart and Klein derided and implement a simple, three-step process: states request funding, the feds approve it, and providers build. That’s it. Trump’s first term prioritized market-driven innovation, like leveraging SpaceX’s Starlink. A second term could double down—bypassing the NTIA’s bureaucratic morass and fast-tracking fiber and satellite deployment. Results, not process.

The Medicaid model worked because it moved quickly and gave states breathing room. The broadband model is failing because it chokes progress with bureaucracy. Trump 2.0 and DOGE offer a way forward: smarter government, less waste, and faster outcomes. LBJ showed government can work. Trump showed it can move. Now, with the right tools, it can do both—fast.

Imagine rural kids on Zoom, seniors accessing telehealth with ease, and Medicaid responding in days instead of months. That’s the vision. That’s the promise of Trump 2.0 and DOGE: not just to streamline, but to liberate the American people from the grip of the modern administrative state.