Ever since President Donald Trump’s landslide re-election in November 2024, the media-industrial complex and its political allies have been screaming one word louder than ever: recession. Cable news pundits, legacy newspapers, and a veritable army of social media doom-posters are ringing the alarm bells. “The Trump economy is on the brink,” they tell us. “Brace for impact.”
But here at Optimum Broadband, we believe in logic, not hysteria. Facts, not feelings. And the facts? They tell a very different story.
The Kudlow Rule: Growth Is Growth
Let’s start with the basics. As of Q1 2025, U.S. GDP is growing at an annualized rate of 2 to 2.5%, according to preliminary numbers from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s not booming—but it’s steady, sustainable growth.
Unemployment sits at 4.1%—a hair above last year, but still near multi-decade lows. Consumer spending remains strong, particularly in services, retail, and travel. And core inflation? Tamed, hovering around 3%.
The Federal Reserve, wisely holding rates steady at 4.5–4.75%, seems to agree: the economy is on solid footing.
That’s not a recession. That’s a durable, dynamic economy adjusting to global turbulence—and emerging stronger.
Manufactured Panic: TDS in the Markets
So why the panic? Why are networks like CNN and The New York Times flooding the zone with stories about “economic peril”? Why are progressive influencers lighting up X (formerly Twitter) with end-is-nigh memes?
Because they’re suffering from an old affliction: Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS)—the irrational need to paint any success under Trump as failure.
It’s the same playbook they used during his first term. When Trump cut taxes, they predicted deficits would destroy us. When he deregulated energy, they screamed climate Armageddon. When he renegotiated trade deals, they cried “trade war.” And when wages rose, unemployment fell, and the stock market hit record highs—they called it a fluke.
Now, in 2025, they’re back at it—ignoring the fundamentals in favor of a narrative.
There Are Risks—But They’re Manageable
To be fair, this isn’t a perfect economy. There are risks. Business investment has pulled back slightly, especially in manufacturing and logistics, as companies digest Trump’s updated tariff policies on China.
Housing starts have cooled, thanks to high mortgage rates. And some stress remains in the regional banking sector—echoes of 2023’s Silicon Valley Bank mess—but federal regulators are watching it closely and responding with targeted reforms, not sweeping overreach.
And yes, the S&P 500 is down about 5% from its January peak. But even that’s a correction, not a collapse. Stocks rise and fall—it’s the long-term trend that matters. And long-term, America under pro-growth leadership remains the best investment on the planet.
A Tale of Two Narratives
One of the more underreported stories of the last decade is the degree to which partisan perception drives economic sentiment. A landmark 2024 study by the American Political Science Association confirmed what many of us suspected: Democrats routinely rate the economy worse under Republican presidents—even when the actual data is strong.
So when the media blares “Recession!” 24/7, it’s less about the economy and more about the narrative. It’s emotional politics masquerading as economics.
At Optimum Broadband, we’re not interested in spin. We look at industrial production, consumer confidence, the yield curve, energy output, and labor participation. Those are the vital signs of a real economy. And they aren’t flashing red—they’re mostly green.
Trump’s Tariffs: Strategic, Targeted, and Pro-Growth
Let’s take a moment to clear the air about Trump’s latest round of tariffs. The usual suspects in the media and academia are once again crying “trade war” and predicting economic ruin. But here’s the truth: Trump’s tariffs aren’t about isolationism—they’re about leverage.
The president’s new “America First 2.0” trade strategy is a continuation of what he started in his first term: holding foreign competitors accountable, particularly China, for decades of cheating, IP theft, currency manipulation, and mercantilist abuse.
These tariffs are not blanket taxes on all imports—they’re surgical tools aimed at strategic sectors: semiconductors, EV batteries, solar panels, and critical rare-earth minerals where the U.S. must secure its supply chains. This is economic security, not protectionism.
Critics say tariffs raise prices. That’s textbook theory, not real-world economics. What they miss is that tariffs can shift global supply chains in our favor, bring manufacturing jobs back home, and reduce dependence on hostile nations. We’re already seeing companies diversify production away from China and invest in the U.S., Mexico, and trusted allies. That’s a win.
Even the Congressional Budget Office, hardly a cheerleader for the Trump agenda, admits the tariffs could result in a net GDP boost if implemented alongside tax and regulatory reforms. That’s exactly what’s happening now.
In classic economics : incentives matter. Tariffs, when paired with the right domestic policy mix, incentivize American production, innovation, and job creation. They send a signal to the world: if you want access to the U.S. market, play by our rules.
That’s not anti-trade. That’s pro-fair trade—and it’s long overdue.
America’s Economic Engine Is Still Running
Trump’s economic blueprint—lower taxes, fewer regulations, energy independence, and fair trade—is once again creating the conditions for growth.
Yes, there’s uncertainty in global markets. Yes, China remains a threat. But under strong leadership, America is doing what it always does: adapting, innovating, producing.
In the words of Larry Kudlow, “Free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity.” And in 2025, that path is still open—despite the noise from the peanut gallery.
Final Thought: Turn Down the Volume, Tune into the Data
If you’re feeling anxious about the economy, we get it. The headlines are loud. The social feeds are louder. But here’s our advice:
Don’t follow the fear. Follow the fundamentals.
There’s no recession today. And with the right policies in place—ones that unleash growth rather than stifle it—there won’t be one tomorrow either.
Keep your eye on the numbers. Ignore the clickbait. And remember: the American economy doesn’t run on panic—it runs on productivity.